U.S. automakers are making incremental progress in electrifying their fleets, according to a presentation at the recent 2022 Automotive Propulsion Strategies Conference.
Automotive Futures polled nearly 50 powertrain experts in June and July, including nine OEMs and 18 suppliers, asking for their forecasts for electric and hybrid vehicles.
After previous surveys dating back to 2006, this year’s sampling experts expect electric vehicles to account for 12% of global passenger car demand in 2025 and 25% in 2030, while hybrids will grow to 28% and 33%.
BEVs made up 2.9% of the US light vehicle market and about 5.8% of the global market in 2021, according to Wards Intelligence data.
Meanwhile, experts expect all categories of hybrid cars to grow in global market share: plug-in hybrids to 6% in 2025 and 9% in 2030, full hybrids to 10% and 13%, and light hybrids to 9% and 10 %.
They expect the share of spark ignition compounds to fall in 2025 and 2030 to 60% and 38%, respectively.
For light trucks, those surveyed expect the share of electric vehicle sales to grow to 8% and 18% in 2025 and 2030, with hybrids (all types) rising to 17% and 26%. Meanwhile, the share of spark-injected vehicles will decrease to 66% in 2025 and 47% in 2030.
“Experts think manufacturers are relatively likely to hit CAFE and emissions regulations with credits, but it will be difficult without credits,” says Bruce Belzowski, managing director of Automotive Futures.
Credits include “off-cycle” credits for things like high-efficiency lighting, aerodynamics, air-conditioning efficiency, engine idle systems and other advanced technologies.
Looking at fleet balances and “earned credits,” a new dataset maintained by the research group, Tesla is clearly the leader with 13.8 million mg of CO2 credits in 2020. It’s followed by Honda at 2.9 million and Subaru at 2.0 million.
“All the other manufacturers created credit deficits, with Stellantis at -10.2 million,” Belzowski says.
The group is expected to release its final report for the year in December.
Meanwhile, Belzowski says, 50% of US OEMs report improvements in fuel economy in 2021. compared to 2020, Based on preliminary EPA data. Asian brands took the top spot in the market, with Nissan posting the biggest gains and General Motors the biggest drop in 2021.
Realistic is the fact that OEMs are still a long way from reaching the 2,026 federally imposed targets, which Biden is running. It resets in May to 59.4 mpg (3.96 l/100 km) and 132 gCO2/mp for cars, 42.4 mpg (5.5 l/100 km) and 187 g/mp for trucks.
In 2021, according to Belzowski, Nissan reported the lowest emissions and best fuel economy (all vehicle types) at 303 g/mile and 29 mpg (8.1 l/100 km), a decrease of 8.7% and an increase of 9.4%, respectively, About 2014 levels, when Automotive Futures first started tracking data.
Hyundai and Honda followed in second, followed by Subaru, Kia, Toyota and Volkswagen on the list.
GM, Stellants and Ford came in at 415, 410, 390 g/mi, 21.5 mpg (10.9 l/100 km), 22.7 mpg (10.4 l/100 km), and 21.6 mpg (10.9 l/100 km) , respectively, due to the greater presence of SUVs and full-size pickup trucks in their fleets.
Although nine out of 10 OEMs – all but GM – made emissions improvements over the seven-year period, none achieved a 10% reduction in 2021. In fuel economy, seven manufacturers scored Original equipment – all but GM, Ford and Volkswagen – gain.
In the automotive sector, Honda pioneered fuel economy in 2021 (32.1 mpg). [7.3 L/100 km]), Toyota (31.6 mpg) [7.4 L/100 km]), Kia (31.5 mpg .) [7.5 L/100 km]), Nissan (31.4 mpg .) [7.5 L/100 km]) and Volkswagen (30.7 mpg (7.7 l/100 km)), the leader in CO2 emissions was Volkswagen at 274 g/mile, followed by Honda at 276, Toyota and Nissan at 280, and Kia at 281.
In the truck segment, Subaru led at 28.3 mpg (8.3 l/100 km), followed by Honda at 26.0 mpg (9.0 l/100 km), Kia at 24.5 mpg (9.6 l/100 km), Nissan 24.4 mpg (9.6 l/100km) and the Toyota at 23.3 mpg (10.0 l/100km). Subaru was the emissions leader, with 313 g/mile, followed by Honda (341), Kia (362), Nissan (364) and Toyota (381).